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Sinema’s approach is particularly vexing to many Democrats because a more populist, progressive Democrat could probably win Arizona too, as Matthew Yglesias of Substack has pointed out. Taxes on the wealthy and corporations are historically low, and raising them is central to paying for Democratic plans for expanding social programs, reducing inequality and lowering the budget deficit. In the long term, Sinema’s 1990s-style moderation arguably creates bigger problems for the Democratic Party than Manchin’s policy views do. Sinema is also more hostile to some forms of corporate regulation than Manchin is. In their place, the proposal included a collection of smaller tax increases, like a 5 percent surcharge on household income above $10 million. “You all know, the entire country knows, that I’m opposed to raising the corporate minimum tax rate,” Sinema said at a recent event hosted by business lobbyists in Arizona.Īs a result, a compromise proposal that the White House released in October, with at least tentative support from Sinema, dropped the major tax increases on which Biden campaigned. If Democrats had to worry only about Manchin and not Sinema, they might be able to raise taxes on top incomes, investments and corporations.
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He opposed the Trump tax cut of 2017, and he has said he supports substantial tax increases as part of Biden’s agenda (even if he does not want to go as far as Biden does). Today’s newsletter focuses on the differences between Manchin’s objections and Sinema’s - and what bill might be able to bridge them.įor all of Manchin’s Democratic Party apostasy, he has regularly sided with the party’s attempts to raise taxes on corporations and the rich. They also know that a failure to pass legislation would make the party look incompetent and potentially aggravate the usual midterm losses that the president’s party suffers. They understand that their control of Congress and the White House gives them a rare opportunity to pass ambitious domestic policies. Many Democrats are desperate to pass a bill. Still, the outlines of a potential compromise seem fairly clear: It would be a much smaller bill than most Democrats want but could still make major changes to federal policy, likely focusing on climate change and perhaps prescription-drug prices. Manchin, by contrast, has been supportive of the tax increases and skeptical of the spending programs, especially an expansion of the child tax credit and some climate measures. She has been more willing to spend than to tax. Sinema has generally been more skeptical of the tax increases in Biden’s original proposal, while she has supported sweeping measures on climate and child poverty. As Emily Cochrane, who covers Congress, puts it, “That’s the compromise that needs to be reached.” “The clash oddly seems to be between what Manchin will accept and what Sinema will accept,” Carl Hulse, The Times’s chief Washington correspondent, says. Both have wanted to shrink the bill - yet in distinct ways, which is a major reason that Democrats have been unable to reach a deal. Some journalists have given the pair a nickname: Manchinema.īut Manchin’s and Sinema’s specific concerns are different. Both are centrists who say they are worried about government spending and inflation. Congressional Republicans remain unanimously opposed to any bill as has often been the case during recent Democratic presidencies.Īt first glance, the objections from Manchin and Sinema can seem similar. The party cannot afford to lose even a single Democratic vote in the Senate, and two senators - Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona - have publicly objected to parts of the agenda. If they succeed, they have the potential to slow climate change, reduce drug prices for millions of Americans and raise taxes on the wealthy.īut the basic challenge in passing a bill is unchanged. Congress has returned to Washington after a recess, and Democrats are trying to come up with a slimmed-down version of President Biden’s domestic agenda that they can pass in coming weeks.